Extra Reading Materials

Over the past few weeks, both Intel and AMD have discussed their roadmaps for processors for the coming year. Because the companies’ CPUs will be the basis of nearly all the PCs we’ll see produced in 2010, this seemed like a good time to look at what we can expect in the desktop, laptop, and server markets. The improvements start almost as soon as the calendar changes, but some of the most impressive offerings are just getting their start next year and won’t really come into their own until 2011.

Enthusiast and High-Performance Desktops
In 2009, the top end of the market was characterized by quad-core processors. Intel’s entry was the Core i7 and, more recently, the Core i5-750, both based on the “Nehalem” core, produced at 45nm. Both are quad-core processors, with 8MB of L3 cache and what Intel calls “Turbo Boost,” meaning that it can turn off some cores to run others at faster speeds.

The big difference between the two is that Core i7 chips can handle up to eight threads at a time with what Intel calls Hyper-Threading; Core i5 cannot. In addition, there are many Core 2 Quad processors currently on the market, based on the older “Penryn” core, again at 45nm. These processors do not do Hyper-Threading or Turbo Boost, but tend to be found in somewhat less-expensive systems.

AMD’s counter has primarily been the Phenom II X4 processor, which is also produced at 45nm but does not have symmetric multithreading; it has 6MB of Level 3 cache. In general, the Core i7 and Core i5 products have been fastest at compute performance, with the latest Phenom II processors generally testing on a par or a bit faster than the Core 2 Quad. This class of processor is nearly always paired with a reasonably high-end discrete graphics board, almost always from AMD’s ATI group or from Nvidia. In fact, AMD is promoting the combination of the Phenom II processor, its790FX/GX chipset, and an ATI Radeon 4000 series (or more recently the 5000 series) video card as its ”Dragon” platform.

But if 2009 was the year of quad-core, 2010 will see the coming of six-core desktops. There are workstations with dual quad-cores, but those are aimed at a niche market, typically for jobs like graphics simulations and high-performance computing.

Intel’s entry will be a 32nm chip code-named “Gulftown.” This will be a six-core, 12-thread processor, almost certainly with Turbo Boost, and will be part of the “Westmere” processor generation. It should use the X58 chipset used by the current Core i7 products, will likely have 12MB of L3 cache. It’s not completely clear if this will be called Core i7, or possibly Core i9. It’s slated for the first half of 2010, with early spring dates widely rumored.

AMD’s entry will be a six-core, 45nm chip known as “Thuban,” which should be similar to the six-core Opteron server chip known as “Istanbul” that is already shipping. AMD says it will be combined with its RD890 and SB 850 chipsets and ATI Radeon HD 5000 series discrete graphics as part of a platform it is calling “Leo.” It’s also slated for the first half of next year.

For 2011, expect both companies to introduce new architectures. AMD is readying its “Bulldozer” core, which will be its 32nm entry, with plans for an eight-core “Zambezi” processor. Intel should be introducing “Sandy Bridge,” a new core architecture on its 32nm process. (Intel alternates process and architecture improvements in what it calls a “tick/tock” cadence.)

Mainstream Desktops
In the mainstream desktop space, dual-core computing remains standard, with quad-core processors available at relatively reasonable prices. In 2009, this segment saw mainly AMD Athlon II processors (in X2, X3, and X4 configurations, respectively denoting dual-, triple-, and quad-core architecture) and Intel Core 2 Duo and Quad processors. You may also see older AMD Athlon 64 processors, as well as Intel “Pentium” processors (most of which are very similar to the Core 2 Duo, but with less cache).

For next year, the biggest move will come from Intel, which plans to introduce its first 32nm processor, known as “Clarkdale,” early in 2010. This is a dual-core (four-thread) chip based on the “Westmere” generation and is notable for integrating a 45nm graphics die along with the 32nm processor die on a single chip. These systems will use Intel’s 5-series chipset, as part of the “Piketon/Kings Creek” platform. Again, Intel has not formally announced naming, but it seems likely that low-end versions of this will be called Core i3 with higher-end versions carrying the Core i5 name.

Expect to see some of the quad-core Core i5 processors in mainstream computers as well, with the Core 2 Duo and Pentium brands sticking around on the low-end side, as well as Atom-based entry-level desktops, sometimes called “nettops.”

AMD’s mainstream line is slated to stay with the Athlon II line, but a jump to better integrated graphics is expected as part of what the company calls its “Dorado” platform.

About a year from now, I expect we’ll start to get the push for the next generation of mainstream chips from both companies, ones that will integrate graphics onto the same die as the processor. AMD has been talking about what it calls “Fusion” for a long time, and this is now expected in 2011 with its 32nm quad-core “Llano” chip; Intel is talking about doing something similar. (Note that both of these would use a single die; this is different from Intel’s Clarkdale, which basically is just taking a new 32nm processor and an improved 45nm graphics die and putting them in a package together.)

Laptops

2010 is also shaping up to be an interesting year for laptop computers. But in some ways, it’s just a stopgap until even bigger changes come in 2011.

On the processor front, the big news will probably come early next year, when Intel will introduce its “Arrandale” chip, the mobile version of the dual-core 32nm Westmere line. This chip will have two cores, but with support for Hyper-Threading it will support four threads. This is part of the company’s “Calpella” platform (based on its 5-series chipset). Arrandale may come out under different brand names (Core i3, Core i5, and Core i7), with the differentiation due to support for Turbo Boost and the amount of cache available on each chip.

One big change with this chip is that it will include both a 32nm processor die and a 45nm graphics die on the same chip, as Intel integrates more features. Since the bulk of laptops use integrated graphics, it will be very interesting to see how this performs compared with AMD’s existing integrated graphics, which have typically been faster than Intel’s equivalent.

On the higher end, the company recently introduced the quad-core (eight-thread) “Clarksfield” chip, which is sold under the Core i7 brand. It is also part of the “Calpella” platform.

You will probably still see a number of Core 2 Duo notebooks (based on the older “Santa Rosa” and “Montevina” platforms) on the market for some time, as well as machines using the Pentium and Celeron brand, which are mostly older designs with less cache, and sometimes a single core instead of two. Within this group, some processors are marked as “ultra-low voltage,” which means they generally use less energy and so have slower clock speeds but better battery life. The bulk of this line has recently moved from single-core to dual-core processors, and it’s likely we’ll see the “Arrandale” chips move into this segment later in the year.

And of course, Atom will be the entry for netbooks, which has become a very large part of the market. Intel is planning on replacing its existing “Diamondville” version of Atom with a new processor called “Pineview” (on a platform it calls “PineTrail”) early next year.

Within AMD’s line, the big change will be the introduction of quad-core mobile processors and a new integrated graphics chipset that is DirectX 10.1–capable as part of its “Danube” platform, due out in the first half of 2010. The 45nm processor, which should be available in both dual- and quad-core versions, carries the code name “Champlain” but will likely get an official name in the Turion family. AMD is downplaying processor names in favor of its “Vision” platform (with Vision on the low end, Vision Premium for higher-end integrated graphics, and Vision Ultimate for machines with discrete graphics). AMD plans a version of its DirectX 11 discrete graphics for this market as well, which could be a very strong platform for gamers and others who need that level of graphics.

AMD is also planning a new version of its products for the “ultrathin” market in the first half of 2010, with a dual-core 45nm chip known as “Geneva.” This will be part of the company’s “Nile” platform and is aimed between the netbook segment and mainstream notebooks, with better battery life than a traditional notebook but more performance than a typical netbook (including a discrete graphics option, which seems unusual in this category).

All these products are interesting, but 2011 is when the architecture really changes, with processor cores and graphics cores coming together to form a single die from both companies. AMD has talked more about its strategy, planning for a platform called “Sabine” with a new quad-core “accelerated processing unit” codenamed “Llano” for mainstream notebooks; and a platform called “Brazos” with a new APU, “Ontario,” that uses a new core called “Bobcat,” designed for lower performance and longer battery life. Intel, too, is talking about combining graphics and processing on a single 32nm die in that time frame, but it hasn’t shared many details yet.

I’m not sure yet whether a typical user will particularly care whether integrated graphics are on a chipset (as in most of today’s mainstream notebooks); bundled with the CPU die into a single chip, as in Intel’s Arrandale platform; or actually placed into a single die with the CPU, as both AMD and Intel plan for 2011. What matters is performance and reliability. Gamers and others who need high-end graphics will continue to choose discrete graphics, but the hope is that tighter integration will yield to better performance for video playback, light-duty video editing and encoding, Web browsing, and light-to-medium-duty gaming. Of course, the proof will ultimately be in the platforms.

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